Sunday, May 4, 2014

THE UNSUNG ANCHOR OF A CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM

Quick!  Name a few players on the Kansas City Tornadoes.  Ok, that’s our two-time defending champs, so it shouldn’t be hard, right?  Well, there’s Oliver North, of course.  (Naturally, you had to go their first.  Media whore!)  And of course their best hitter every year is Jesus Cruz.  (Nice.  Can you keep going?)  Umm, ok…  so there is that Turkey guy also.  (Right you are, Fernando “Turkey” Bautista)  Without thinking, you just named the best leadoff hitter in the ABL, and the 2017 TML MVP and 2018 TML Silver Slugger.  You might even come up with a few other names, like staff-ace Reynaldo Martinez, or slugger Akio Toyoda.  But even after listing all of these names, you have not begun to touch the true core and heart of this team.  The Anchor of the Tornadoes is not a prodigy like Oliver North, nor a big bat like Cruz or Bautista, or even the premier man in the rotation, Reynaldo Martinez.
As the curtain prepares to rise on an 8th ABL campaign, the atmospheric conditions across the heartland point to yet another strong Tornado season.  The baseball club from Kansas City is coming off back-to-back World Series Championships so they are not about to sneak up on anyone in 2019.  Team officials believe this year’s Tornadoes are primed to field their best team yet, and there is certainly evidence to suggest that the Tornadoes are officially the team to beat in the ABL right now.  The offense is shaping up to be one of the league’s best this year, and the starting rotation has performed admirably and is young enough that additional development is likely.   But the team feels that the unsung hero of their recent Championship run, and the underrated anchor of the team, rests with their young arms coming out of the bullpen.
There was a time not too long ago when the Tornadoes bullpen was the Achilles heel of the team.  Year after year the relievers in KC would come in to put out the fires only to spread more gasoline than Exxon.   Just a couple years ago the closer in KC, Millard Moore, finished with a 6.75 ERA.  Guys like Tynan Gibson and Jorge Magana had been around since the inception of the team, but were still failing to fulfill on their promise and potential, and the Tornadoes had the worst bullpen in the league.  In response, the front office made a deliberate and bold paradigm shift in how to build a pitching staff.  “We spent the early years trying so hard to focus on starting pitching,” says owner Tim Ervin.  “But we eventually realized this strategy was backfiring because so many teams had the exact same focus on starters and so the market was soft.”  Because so many teams coveted starting pitching, you had to have a top five pick to get a sure thing in the draft, and teams would select marginal starters with promise in the early rounds over much stronger relief pitching prospects.  “We were one of those teams for many years,” Ervin said flatly, “trying desperately to drill for SP-gold against all the other teams in the league.”  The front office adapted by drafting bullpen arms early in the draft, and making significant trades that added quality young arms as well.  By acquiring relievers when the majority of the league was mining for starters, the Tornadoes were able to gather a lot of young talent that has been developing together in the system, and they have made several key trades for young bullpen arms as well.  The result is young corps of relief arms that has reached their peak development at the same time and now should be considered the best young bullpen in the ABL---  and at a bargain price to boot.  The entire projected 6-man bullpen for the Tornadoes this year is between the ages of 22 and 27 and despite leading the league last year in ERA from the bullpen, the entire combined cost for these 6 arms this year will be less than 8 million dollars.  All six of these relievers hit at least 98 on the radar gun and two of them throw the heater at 101 mph.  They are not fond of giving up the longball, as three of the arms have a GB% over 70, and the other three come in at 68, 66, and 62 mph.  Here is the projected Anchor for the Tornadoes in 2019:
Alan Buckley – Closer / Age 26.  Salary:  500k.  Acquired with 19th pick in first round in 2015.  Last year was his first as the team closer, and Buckley saved 33 games and posted a 2.31 ERA with a WHIP of just 1.00.  In 70 innings he allowed just 48 hits and struck out 85. 
Jon Lewis – Setup / Age 27.  Salary:  4.6 million.  Acquired in trade with the Mustangs in 2015.  In four seasons with the KC bullpen, Lewis has a combined 2.81 ERA.  In the setup role last year, the southpaw allowed just 3 home runs and struck out 100 batters in 90 innings.
Michael Burton – MR / Age 25.  Salary:  500k.  Acquired with the 16th pick in round two of the 2015 draft, Burton is a good example of how the Tornadoes grabbed a top flight young reliever in the draft when everyone was distracted by starters.  After some development, Burton burst on the ML club last year and was a big contributor with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 54 innings.
Ernesto Lopez – MR / Age 22.  Salary:  500k.  Acquired when he was just 17 years old when scouting found him in the Dominican back in 2014, he was immediately signed to ML contract.  This early contract forced Lopez onto the ML roster at the tender age of 20 two years ago, perhaps before he was ready.  But he has continued to develop, and last year he pitched 50.2 innings with a 2.66 ERA and zero homers allowed.  Lopez has allowed just 2 home runs in over 90 innings over the past two seasons.
Juan Lujuan – MR / Age 27.  Salary:   500k.  Acquired in the 2016 trade that sent former Staff Ace Antonio Gomez packing, Juan Lujuan is the middle innings eater on the team, with the 17-rated stamina by OSA.  Lujuan is coming off a season where he posted a 3.81 ERA in over 80 innings. 
Glenn Rush – MR / Age 27.  Salary:  1.25 million.  Acquired in the 2015 trade that sent former speedster Lawrence Fox packing, Glenn Rush missed most of last season with a serious injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery.  Still, in the last two seasons combined for KC, Rush has pitched 101.2 innings with a 2.66 ERA. 


The plan to stockpile relievers was so successful, in fact, that the Tornadoes even traded a 5-star relief prospect to the Seattle Sasquatch---  Andres Nevarez.  And the list above also doesn’t include another reliever acquired in trade, David Perez, who performed very well in 22 innings with the big league club last year, and will be first alternate promoted from Joplin this year if someone falls prey to an injury.  A bullpen with this type of depth and talent, allows the team to accentuate their strengths in the starting rotation and, to a degree, hide their weaknesses.  And a bullpen this young and inexpensive suggests that the Tornadoes will anchored by from the pen for many more years.

THE TORNADOES UNPREDICTABLE PATH: The Signing of Chris Collins

If one were to dig into the history of the Kansas City Tornadoes to search for a front office theme or a thesis by which the approach of player personnel management through the years could be described, it might go something like this:  A 100% commitment to staying young, and an absolute unwillingness to overspend in the Free Agent Market.  When the Free Agent Pool is announced each year, the Tornadoes Brass typically dive into their storm shelter and avoid the field like an F5 storm passing overhead.  In winning their back-to-back championships, the Tornadoes compiled their mix of talent without using the Free Agent Market for anything other than additional youth.  The only member of the two Championships teams that came to the organization via Free Agency was starting pitcher and staff-ace Reynaldo “Sluggo” Martinez.  Martinez was signed when he was just a teenager for the amazing price of 66.75 million over five years.  Some GM’s were highly critical of the decision to spend 66 million on a teenager with zero pro experience.  Whether you like the move or not, it showed that the front office was more than willing to spend money on a high priced youngster.  But the same team has never been willing to pay the big bucks for a high priced free agent in his golden years.  Even if an upgrade was available in free agency, the front office seemed content to stay with the youngsters and continue a commitment to their development.
                But this year turned out to be different, as the Tornadoes recently announced the free agent signing of outfielder Chris Collins to a monster 20 million per year deal.  Collins has been a consistent hitter in the ABL since the inaugural 2012 season.  In more than 3700 career AB’s, Collins has compiled a combined average of .338 and an OBP of .405, while averaging 29 homers every 162 games, and more than 100 runs and RBI’s.  He is coming off season where he hit .307 with an OBP of .389 and 25 homers.  And he has done all of this while playing respectable defense as a corner outfielder.  To say that he can make a contribution to the starting lineup of almost any team, would be an understatement.  But Collins is also 37 years old right now, and will be 38 before the year is over.  That’s not just old in terms of how the Tornadoes view player age, that’s old under any team view.  SS Stephen Everett will be 34 years old this year for KC and Jesus Cruz just had his 32nd birthday.  Aside from these two players, every member of the active roster this year projects to be in their 20’s.  To say that Chris Collins doesn’t exactly “fit the mold” in Kansas City might be putting it mildly.  And it’s not like the team was exactly hurting in the outfield.  The Tornadoes have Oliver North in CF and Fernando Bautista in RF, and they shuffled a trio of players in LF last year – Claude Morin, John Byford, and Shunso Meshizuka.  All three of these players are young and have shown an ability to play at the ML level.  So why did the Tornadoes go out and clearly overpay for Chris Collins this offseason?
                “Simply put, because we could afford to,” says owner Tim Ervin.  “We had a real surplus of open budget room these next two years, and we felt we owed it to this group of players and to our fans to try and build on our success.”  Even after back-to-back Championships, the Tornadoes projected to have a payroll that ranked only 14th among 24 teams prior to signing Collins.  “We had all this money to spare, and we just felt that Chris would be another top rate bat in the heart of the lineup,” Ervin said of his new slugger.  One of the reasons the team had so much money to spare was an owner that has been very generous once the team began winning.  After the team lost almost 100 games in 2016, the owner dropped the budget from 124 million to 120 million.  But after winning the Championship in 2017 the owner added 16 million to the budget, and when the team won again last year he added another 14 million.  That is a 30 million dollar increase in budget in just two years and has the Tornadoes ranking 3rd in the league with a budget of 150 million.  Collins signed for an resounding 20 million per year over the next three years, with the third year being an unlikely team option.  That makes Collins the 3rd highest paid player in the ABL right now, behind Tom Becker in Washington and Raul Perez in Cabo.  The Tornadoes jump all the way to 4th in payroll now, at just over 102 million.  But it is important to note that the top three payrolls are all over 134 million, so the drop then to 102 million is vast canyon of 32 million dollars.  The Tornadoes may rank 4th in payroll now, but they are only spending 18 million more than the 12th-ranked Washington Federals.  So you can mark this signing down as a likely overpay for Collins, but it still leaves the Tornadoes near the pack in payroll commitment.    It was a big leap off script for the Tornadoes, but the risk was pretty minimal in the grand scheme of things.  And now the front office feels that their first six hitters in the lineup will be able to stand up against every team in the league, with the early projected lineup being:  Oliver North, Chris Collins, Fernando Bautista, Jesus Cruz, Akio Toyoda, and Curt Hall. 

                With Collins now slated as the clear starter in left field for the Tornadoes, this leaves a trio of outfielders from the Championship team a year ago scrambling for the final two reserve spots in the outfield.  Morin, Byford, and Meshizuka all have shown success at the ML level.  All are between 24 and 27 years old and are good enough to start in this league.  And it is not like the ownership of the Tornadoes to push one of them down to the minors to make room for a 38 year old veteran, but that’s exactly what is going to happen.  For the first time in history, the Kansas City Tornadoes are not following their usual path.  And that is one of the reasons that this team might be their most formidable yet.

Sunday, April 13, 2014

KC Tornadoes are BACK-to-BACK ABL Champions

When the KC Tornadoes won the ABL World Series in 2017, they were team that was ahead of schedule.  The team was coming off a franchise-record 97-loss season.  Management was confident that the Championship pieces were in the fold, but it would take time for them to gel.  A few years at least.  But in 2017, the team pulled off an amazing turnaround, going from 2nd-worst record in the league to ABL Champs in just one season.

In 2018, the KC Tornadoes came into the year burdened with something for the very first time in franchise history--  expectations.  The team was in place, and they just had to find a way to capitalize... again.  But a ton of things did not go according to plan this year.  Starting SS Mike Rhodes was injured in the first month of the season...  and never won his job back, as savy veteran Stephen Everett flashed some of his retro-form and took over the SS role for the year.  Favorite Son Howard Lawrence became an overnight liability at 3B defensively and gave way to 20 year old Pedro Gomez.  Lawrence was later released.  Regulars James Riley (2B), Claude Morin (LF), and Curt Hall (C) all gave up a good chunk of their AB's to team newcomers Larry Strafford, Shunso Meshizuka, and Gary Lawson.  The pitching staff was not immune either.  Two of the team's best relievers from the year before simply vanished.  Glen Rush vanished literally with a season long trip to the DL after just 15 innings, and Robert Cates vanished figuratively after posting an ERA over 6 for the year.  And then there were the injuries...  one after another.  A team that was relatively healthy in 2017, was beset by injuries in their second run to the title.  At one point, the team had their starting 1B, DH, 2B, SS, RF, CF, and staff ace all on the DL at the same time.  Staff Ace Reynaldo Martinez missed about 4 months of the season. Star leadoff man Oliver North was injured six separate times in 2018, with the final injury causing the tablesetter to miss the last two weeks of the regular season and all of the playoffs.

Yet despite all of these setbacks, the team found a way to adapt and overcome.  The Tornadoes were down two games to nothing in the World Series against Montreal, a team that won 105 regular season games.  But again, the Tornadoes found a way.  They came back to KC where they shelled their old nemesis Maurice "Dough Boy" Gould in a 10-0 victory in Game 3, and then won both Game 4 and Game 5 with walkoff hits in the bottom of the 9th.  Perhaps the game that best highlights the resiliency of this team was that Game 5 victory at Debris Field.  At stake in that game was the opportunity to go up 3-2 in the series, and the Bandits opened the game red hot, rolling to a 10-0 lead in the middle innings.  But the KC team pulled off the impossible, staging an epic comeback victory that ended with a second straight walkoff hit in the bottom of the 9th inning to cap off an improbable 12-11 victory.  After winning a game like that, the team was brimming with confidence in Game 6, and  Staff Ace Reynaldo Martinez was brilliant in that game, going 8 innings and allowing just one run in a 4-1 Championship winning game.

And so, even without North in the lineup, the KC Tornadoes navigated the minefield of the ABL Playoffs for a second straight year and emerge as Champions.

And the future is bright for this team.  While the farm system is not highly regarded right now, the team is still blessed with the virtue of youth.  Only three people on the playoff roster were over 30 years old this season, and one of those was Jesus Cruz, who still seems to be in his prime at age 31.  The team is young, and the financial position of the franchise is sensational.  And after posting back-to-back Championships, the team believes it might just have the Perfect Storm brewing on the horizon, as they look to start another Championship quest in 2019.


Tuesday, February 26, 2013

THE TORNADOES SECRET WEAPON REVEALED!

As the 2014 ABL All-Star Game approaches, and with more than half the votes counted, there is only one ABL infielder in either league to be a unanimous choice of his peers to appear in the high profile exhibition of the league's best talent.  Shortstop Jim Crawford of Nottinghamshire?  Nope.  First baseman Peter Blanchard of Minnesota?  No, sir.  Not even Tornadoes slugger Jesus Cruz can boast unanimous All-Star support.  The answer is Cruz' teammate---  third baseman Howard Lawrence, who is starting to get noticed in the ABL and will represent the Thurman Munson League in the ABL All-Star game in a little more than a week.

Lawrence's development has been somewhat obscured in KC behind seemingly bigger names like Jesus Cruz, Armando Rodriguez, Antonio Gonzalez, and even speedy Lawrence Fox.  Howard Lawrence didn't exactly burst onto the scene in Kansas City.  Selected in the 32nd round of the inaugural 2012 draft with the 747th overall selection, Lawrence was selected with hope that he might develop into the quintessential utility infielder.  "He played all of the infield positions with some skill and seemed to have all of the intangibles that we are looking for," said Tornadoes GM Tim Ervin when asked about Lawrence recently.  And when the Tornadoes GM speaks about intangibles, team insiders will tell you that is code for work ethic, something that is valued very highly in the heartland.  "Nobody works harder than Howard," said outfielder Bob Watkins.  "He's a quiet leader that everyone in the locker room has come to respect."

But everyone knows that respect is earned on the field, and the ABL debut for Lawrence far from spectacular.  Lawrence was having success in AAA for the Joplin Fireballs, batting .293 with 15 homers playing mostly at shortstop.  When he was promoted late in 2012 to the parent club, the team was looking for someone to fill in for their injured second baseman, Armando Rodriguez.  "Those were big shoes to fill," recounted Lawrence when asked about his debut.  "He was the first-ever pick of this franchise, and I'll be the first to admit that it was pretty overwhelming to be called up to try and play his position.  I was pressing too much."  The Tornadoes stuck with him for a few weeks, but to say that it did not go as Lawrence had hoped...   well, that might be an understatement.  In 85 AB's Lawrence batted just .165 and he was promptly sent back down to the minors.  "It was disappointing, but I knew it was coming," said Lawrence.  "I don't regret it because that taste of The Show just made me that much more hungry to get back."  And he didn't have to wait very long.

In 2013, Lawrence opened season on the Tornadoes roster, presumably as the utility infielder he was drafted to become.  But when the Tornadoes traded aging 3B Emilio Guerrero to the Montreal Bandits midway into the season, Lawrence was given the opportunity to play at the hot corner every day.  It didn't take too long for Lawrence to earn the respect of his teammates with his performance.  Lawrence finished 2012 with 345 AB's, batting .270 with a stellar OBP of .366 and 15 home runs.  After posting number like that, the man that had been groomed as the Tornadoes utility infielder had surprisingly secured himself an everyday spot in the lineup.  But he was not done exceeding expectations....  not by a longshot.

This year, Lawrence has taken his performance to a new level.  He has missed just one game all season and is batting .334 with an OBP of .374 and 18 home runs.  He is on pace for 36 dingers and more than 100 runs and RBI's.  Even his defense has improved this year and, though he won't compete for a gold glove, he has been very solid defensively with a +2.0 ZR and a 1.012 defensive efficiency.  All of this has led to his being a unanimous selection in the voting so far for the 2014 ABL All-Star Game.  Of course, like all perfectionists, Lawrence tends to dwell on his shortcomings.  "There's always room for improvement," said the KC third baseman.  "Starting with stepping up more in big moments."  Some team members advised us that Lawrence is still stewing about a less than stellar performance during a big three game showdown with the rival Mile High Mustangs recently.  Lawrence was just 1-for-15 in that series and struck out 6 times.  "It was a difficult pill for him to swallow because he has been so consistent," said veteran shortstop Stephen Everett.  "But this game has its ups and downs and he's learning that."  Everett also noted that Lawrence carried the offense in the series just prior to the trip to Mile High, homering in all three games against the Eureka Hornets. 

But if the career trend for Howard Lawrence is any indication, he may still be developing.  Which is a scary thought for a guy that has come so far in just one season.  He played in relative obscurity until now.  But with an appearance in the All-Star Game this year, the league is starting to notice what the Tornadoes have already acknowledged...  Debris Field is lucky to have this guy "in the funnel".

HAPPY BIRTHDAY HOWARD LAWRENCE - 27 years old today!

Funnelmaster

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

The 2014 TORNADOES – The SURGE, THE SCOURGE, and the PURGE!


The Kansas City Tornadoes were a surprise last season when they pushed the Hornets for an entire season, eventually finishing 2 games behind the team from Eureka with an 86-76 record.  This filled the team with hope coming into the 2014 season.  The first 69 games have been an interesting journey, which can best be laid out into three chapters:  The Surge, The Scourge, and The Purge.

CHAPTER ONE:  THE SURGE – The Tornadoes certainly felt ready to compete as the season began, but even their most ardent supporter probably wasn’t expecting the type of early SURGE this team experienced.  After 45 games, the Tornadoes had a blazing 30-15 record on the year.  With the season more than 27% done, the team was on a blistering pace that would extrapolate out to 108 wins.  And while the GM would be the first to admit he was not predicting 108 wins after just a quarter season, there was every reason to believe the team was legit and formidable.  The pitching and defense was performing sensational, and the hitting was also holding its own despite some early struggles for Jesus Cruz and Ricardo Marquis.  “I never doubted them for a minute,” said Manager Damian Connor about his sluggers.  “They’re dependable, and it was just a matter of time before their bats started ripping.”  Cruz batted just .250 in the opening month of the season, but improved to .343 in May, and then .391 in June.  When you have a well-rounded team with a hitter like Cruz in the heart of the order, and an arm like Antonio Gomez at the top of the rotation, you have a recipe for success.  And that’s exactly what the Tornadoes experienced on their way to blitzing out of the gates this year with a 30-15 record.

CHAPTER TWO:  THE SCOURGE – Since that red-hot start, the Tornadoes have gone just 9-15 in their next 24 games.  One of the big reasons that the team began to struggle was the terrible SCOURGE of injuries.  After going the entire season with any injuries hitting the farm system, the big league club finally began to suffer some serious losses.  In the last three weeks, the Tornadoes have lost MR Marshall Olson for 11 months, SP Rodney Armstrong for 2 months, 2B Armando Rodriguez for 3 months, and CF Bob Watkins for 3 weeks.  The most devastating of these injuries is to Rodriguez who has played Gold Glove caliber defense this year, while batting .332 with a pace for more than 20 HR’s, and 100 RBI’s and Runs.  A team as good as the Tornadoes should be able to overcome almost any injury.  But when you get four big injuries at about the same time, the team finds itself just trying to hold together long enough to get some of this talent back.

CHAPTER THREE:  THE PURGE – The early season surge got this team in a position to think about contending for a title.  But the scourge of injuries which hit the Tornadoes in recent weeks has left the team a little vulnerable to their division foes.  Add in a bullpen that has gotten worse and worse as the season rolls on, and the GM has decided to make some adjustments---  some BIG adjustments.  In the last couple weeks, the Tornadoes have made three trades involving a total of 15 players.  These trades served to PURGE much of the prospect talent for an organization whose minor league talent ranked 6th in the ABL.  Only time will tell how much this ranking drops as a result of these trades.  But the real story that will be written for this franchise is whether the trades will serve to give the team a boost in their efforts to make the 2014 post-season.  Here is a brief summary of the trades:


1.        The Tornadoes traded SP/MR Gerald Webb (ML) to the Nottinghamshire Outlaws for RF John Byford (AAA) and C Wayne Strickland (AAA).  This deal was made prior to the injury to SP Rodney Armstrong, or it likely never would have happened.  With the trade, the Tornadoes were trying to bring in an exciting RF prospect that was close to ready and performing well in AAA, with plans to groom him as a replacement for the aging Ricardo Marquis, who has just one year left on his deal.

2.       The Tornadoes traded CF Shinsaku Kamida (A) to the Seattle Sasquatch for SP/MR Dave Sharp (ML).  Sharp was not good enough to make the rotation in Seattle, but the Tornadoes were fresh off the trade of Webb and the injury to Armstrong, and became a little desperate for a starter that can help them get through  this tough time.  After exploring some options that were more expensive, the Tornadoes settled on Sharp, who comes with a manageable price tag of just $850k this year and $950k next year.  While Sharp has had an ERA over 5.00 in his career in Seattle, Sick Stadium is one of the bigger hitter-heavens of the ABL, and the Tornado braintrust is gambling that he can keep his ERA under 4.50 in a more pitcher friendly park. 

3.       The Tornadoes traded SP Kazuhiko Kanno (AA), C Takaaki Hirayama (ML), 1B Takuji Hakui (AA), RF Chance Parks (AAA), RF Taylor Thompson (AA), and 3B Jeff Hall (ABL) to the SoCal Republic for SP Pepe Lopez (ABL), MR Dave Walton (ABL), C Freddy Castillo (ABL), MR Peter Anthony (AAA), and $5 million.  The Tornadoes parted with six prospects in this trade, not a single one over 24 years old.  The real gem of the trade is MR Dave Walton, who has kept his ERA under 2.30 for each of the past two seasons, and is just 32 years old with a very team-friendly contract.  He becomes an immediate shot in the arm for a bullpen that has been in a terrible slump.  SP Pepe Lopez should give the team some more depth that might help down the stretch, as does Freddy Castillo, whom the Tornadoes traded to the Republic just a year ago.  Finally, Peter Anthony is a good young arm that the team hopes to have developed in time for next season, which the Tornadoes see as their very best opportunity to compete for a title.

One thing is for sure:  By making so many deals in such a short span of time, the Tornadoes have definitely put the league on notice.  “We feel we have a window over the next two years where we think we have a real opportunity to compete for ABL Title,” said GM Tim Ervin.  The SURGE, SCOURGE, and PURGE got them through the first 69 games.  But it’s the next 93 games that will write the final chapter in this story for the 2014 Tornadoes.  And if they can stay close in the next two months while they work some of their injured players back into the lineup, this team may just claim the ultimate prize.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

TIMING and the KODAK MOMENT



The inaugural 2012 season for the Kansas City Tornadoes was not fairy tale one.  The Tornadoes lost their first-ever ABL game, and were never again a .500 team.  The team rode a hot streak down the stretch and were only 4 games under .500 when they hosted a 4-game series against their heated rival to close the season---  The Mile High Mustangs.  After taking the first three games of the series, the Tornadoes were looking for the series sweep in the season finale, and a chance to finish with an even record.  The game featured a duel between aces Manuel Ruiz and Antonio Gomez.  Ruiz was given one unearned run of support in the first inning, and made it stick as the Mustangs won the game 1-0.  The season ended 80-82 for the Tornadoes.
                General Manager Tim Ervin walked away from the first-year experience feeling, as many teams do, that pitching was the key to building his franchise.  It was what held the team back in 2012, and he was determined to do something about it.  First, there was a pre-season trade that sent SP Ray Clay and 3B Emilio Guerrero to the defending World Champs, in exchange for a pair of corner infielders and two SP prospects, Martin Merritt and Robert Price.  There was also a trade just a couple of weeks ago with SoCal that sent catcher Freddy Castillo and a 17-year old prospect packing in exchange for two more arms, Chip Sawyer and Ed Miller.  But the GM also wanted prepare for the long term future of the team, with a heavy pitching focus in the draft.  There seemed to be a greater shortage on pitching in the league than on hitting, and the Tornadoes had seen much more success pulling guys out of AAA to hit in the major leagues, than success promoting  guys to get batters out from the mound.  And so the Tornadoes, who had the 9th pick in every round of the 2013 draft, selected a closer and 5 starting pitchers in the first six rounds of the draft.  The first of these selections came with the 9th overall pick, when the team grabbed Kazuhiko “KODAK” Kanno.  The Tornadoes did not expect the 19-year old pitcher out of Japan to last the first 8 picks, and had projected him as the 3rd best SP prospect behind Dale “Melody” Thomas and Louie Latuilippe.  Three other SP’s were taken after the Thomas and Latulippe picks, and none were Kanno, allowing the Tornadoes to get their man.
                When the Tornadoes started the year with Kanno in A-ball, the rookie made it known that he was not very happy.  Did he feel A-ball was beneath him?  Perhaps.  After 7 starts for the San Angelo Mustangs (A), Kanno had a 2.29 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and batters were hitting just .217 against him.  And so he was quickly promoted to the Wichita Wolverines (AA), and promptly struggled in his first two starts.  But he quickly got back into his groove and was pitching great.  The Front Office began to discuss moving him to AAA Joplin to see what he could do with the Fireballs.  But the Tornadoes scouting office kept advising against it, stating very clearly that he would likely be overmatched in AAA.  And so the team heeded the advice of the scouts who were paid to make these calls, and kept the kid in AA.  But eventually, the Front Office could resist the temptation no longer.  After 11 starts for the Wolverines, Kanno had posted a 3.12 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and batters were hitting just .200 against him---  even lower than in A-ball.  And so, on July 6, Kazuhiko “KODAK” Kanno had his AAA debut against the Antioch Coal Miners.  The performance was respectable.  Kanno went the distance in losing a 4-2 decision.  His line:  8 innings, 7 hits, 4 walks, 4 earned runs.  Though he was not overmatched, it was certainly not a spectacular debut.  But the spectacular was still to come.  In his very next start, Kanno would again go the distance.  But this time he would toss a 2-hit shutout and walked zero batters in dominating the Billings Mustangs.  And then, in his 3rd start in AAA, he would last 8 innings and allow just one earned run for a second straight win.  After six total starts in Joplin, Kanno now has a 3.69 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and batters are hitting just .226 against him.   The kid’s walk/strikeout ratio has been underwhelming for sure in AAA, but he is also yet to allow a home run in 39 innings of work. 
                At every level of the minors, the batting average against him has been stellar.  During a stretch o 7 starts that bridged his promotion to AAA, Kanno went at least 8 innings every single time.  The evidence, at least on the surface, suggests that perhaps his development as a pitcher is more than keeping pace with his fast rate of promotions through the organization.  And this brings us to the question that is knock-knock-knocking on the door of the decision makers in Tornado Tower.  Is it too early or too risky to promote this 19-year old to The Show?  When is it the right time for the much anticipated KODAK moment?
                If the team were struggling or, at least, many games behind down the stretch it wouldn’t even be up for discussion.  There have to be some risks to a youngster by promoting him through the ranks so quickly and placing him in the “Bigs” at just age 19.  But how do you weigh this against the current status of the franchise?  The Tornadoes are currently 62-53, the first time in franchise history they have been this many games over .500.  The team has been within a game of first place for almost the entire season and has led much of the way.  The Tornadoes are currently tied with the Hornets in the Sparky Anderson Division, and just a single game behind the Cardinals in the Wildcard race.  And the Tornadoes seem to have many pieces in place to make a run.  The team has a trio of starters who are pitching brilliantly in Gomez, Cates, and Ramirez, all with ERA’s that have hovered near 3.00 all season  The fastest man on the planet, Lawrence Fox, is still wreaking havoc in the leadoff spot, and he is followed in the batting order by two legitimate MVP candidates---  Jesus Cruz and Armando Rodriguez.  Sluggers Ricardo Marquis and Bob Watkins provide some protection for Cruz, and the team has also had surprising contributions from Stephen Everett & Howard Lawrence with the bat.  Add in the best double-play combo in the ABL and a strong team defense, and there are reasons to believe this team could make the post-season this year.  And once you are there, anything can happen.  But nothing happens if you don’t make it.  And if the bullpen has anything to say about it, the Tornadoes could be in trouble.  This group never saw a fire that didn’t deserve a little gasoline infusion.  Considering the loss of Roosevelt “Great One” Patterson in the first week of the season, it sure could be worse.  But if this team could get a boost in some quality innings down the stretch, they could make the post-season party.  Could it be time for a KODAK moment?
                For now, the kid from Japan is still a member of the Joplin Fireballs.  And the KC Tornadoes have not said when they plan to promote him.  Those close to the situation say that it is not because they won’t tell, but rather because they don’t know.  One thing is for certain.  KODAK has exceeded their first year expectations, and with the team performing as they are right now, this is going to be an interesting decision as the season winds down.

Sunday, June 10, 2012

THE FUNNEL REPORT 7/2/12 - Today we examine the argument for Lawrence Fox as a starter in left field for the ABL All-Star game next week.  The ballots are still being counted, but the early returns have not looked very good, with most voters choosing Stephen Jackson of the South Carolina Bombers over Fox.  At the risk of being labeled a "homer", I am going to try and explain why this voter punched the ticket for the Tornadoes left fielder.

Jackson has a statistical advantage batting average (.336 to .303), OBP (.413 to .358), and slugging (.529 to .510).  That's a sweep of first three stats that people tend to look at.  And, not surprisingly, Jackson also ends up with a better OPS number (.942 to .868).  With a clean sweep of these primary statistical indicators, it is easy to see why many voters have selected Jackson.  But while Jackson has an edge in all of these categories, the margin is not entirely dominating.  Despite just 5 homers on the year, Fox is just 19 points behind him in slugging percentage, in part because he has 31 doubles (2nd in he TML) and 12 triples to lead the TML.  The blazing speed that Fox possesses has resulted in extra bases on so many of his hits, and this means a higher probability of starting out at 2nd or 3rd base.  And yet, he has also managed 37 stolen bases, easily the best such total in the entire ABL  Jackson, incidentally, has zero steals.  How many extra runs have come as a result of the way his speed changes the game?  With so many extra base hits, and 37 steals, this has surely resulted in more times that the infield has been pulled in defensively.  You can bet that fewer double plays have resulted after his AB's.  Perhaps more intentional walks.  I suggest it is arguable that the way his speed has impacted games could more than offset the statiscial advantage that Jackson has in BA, OBP, slugging, and OPS...  as none of these numbers account for his steals and several other impacts his speed may have in a game.  When you look at productivity, Jackson has 45 runs and 40 RBI's.  Meanwhile, Fox has just one less RBI (39) despite batting in the leadoff spot, and he has also scored 61 runs on the year...  sixteen more than Jackson.  So maybe the edge in productivity, steals, and speed impacts doesn't quite offset the primary stat advantages of Jackson in the eyes of some voters.  Perhaps they need more.  If we take a look at how they field the position, we will find that they both have committed two errors, but the speed that Fox brings gives him a ZR of +1.5 and an EFF of 1.016...  while Jackson's complete lack of speed gives him a ZR of -6.9 and an EFF of just .939.  The speed of Fox has resulted in him getting to many balls that Jackson will not, and that is also value that won't show up in the primary four stats.  Finally--- when the game is on the line and it is close in the later innings, both players have seen a drop in batting average.  But that drop is much more severe for Jackson, who is batting just .229 in these situations, as opposed to the .257 for Fox.

As I present this case, Fox is currently 3rd place in the left field balloting for the TML.  Jackson leads the way with 10 votes, and Troy Tracy has 2 votes.  With 13 votes in, that leaves just one vote for Fox, and I will confirm now what I suggested earlier...  that vote came from me.  And while my journalistic integrity leaves me uncomfortable with the "homer" label that comes with being the only vote for the home town guy, this is one label that I choose to wear with pride.  And either way, at the seasons mid-point, Fox is well on his way to being the Tornadoes team MVP.