Sunday, May 4, 2014

THE TORNADOES UNPREDICTABLE PATH: The Signing of Chris Collins

If one were to dig into the history of the Kansas City Tornadoes to search for a front office theme or a thesis by which the approach of player personnel management through the years could be described, it might go something like this:  A 100% commitment to staying young, and an absolute unwillingness to overspend in the Free Agent Market.  When the Free Agent Pool is announced each year, the Tornadoes Brass typically dive into their storm shelter and avoid the field like an F5 storm passing overhead.  In winning their back-to-back championships, the Tornadoes compiled their mix of talent without using the Free Agent Market for anything other than additional youth.  The only member of the two Championships teams that came to the organization via Free Agency was starting pitcher and staff-ace Reynaldo “Sluggo” Martinez.  Martinez was signed when he was just a teenager for the amazing price of 66.75 million over five years.  Some GM’s were highly critical of the decision to spend 66 million on a teenager with zero pro experience.  Whether you like the move or not, it showed that the front office was more than willing to spend money on a high priced youngster.  But the same team has never been willing to pay the big bucks for a high priced free agent in his golden years.  Even if an upgrade was available in free agency, the front office seemed content to stay with the youngsters and continue a commitment to their development.
                But this year turned out to be different, as the Tornadoes recently announced the free agent signing of outfielder Chris Collins to a monster 20 million per year deal.  Collins has been a consistent hitter in the ABL since the inaugural 2012 season.  In more than 3700 career AB’s, Collins has compiled a combined average of .338 and an OBP of .405, while averaging 29 homers every 162 games, and more than 100 runs and RBI’s.  He is coming off season where he hit .307 with an OBP of .389 and 25 homers.  And he has done all of this while playing respectable defense as a corner outfielder.  To say that he can make a contribution to the starting lineup of almost any team, would be an understatement.  But Collins is also 37 years old right now, and will be 38 before the year is over.  That’s not just old in terms of how the Tornadoes view player age, that’s old under any team view.  SS Stephen Everett will be 34 years old this year for KC and Jesus Cruz just had his 32nd birthday.  Aside from these two players, every member of the active roster this year projects to be in their 20’s.  To say that Chris Collins doesn’t exactly “fit the mold” in Kansas City might be putting it mildly.  And it’s not like the team was exactly hurting in the outfield.  The Tornadoes have Oliver North in CF and Fernando Bautista in RF, and they shuffled a trio of players in LF last year – Claude Morin, John Byford, and Shunso Meshizuka.  All three of these players are young and have shown an ability to play at the ML level.  So why did the Tornadoes go out and clearly overpay for Chris Collins this offseason?
                “Simply put, because we could afford to,” says owner Tim Ervin.  “We had a real surplus of open budget room these next two years, and we felt we owed it to this group of players and to our fans to try and build on our success.”  Even after back-to-back Championships, the Tornadoes projected to have a payroll that ranked only 14th among 24 teams prior to signing Collins.  “We had all this money to spare, and we just felt that Chris would be another top rate bat in the heart of the lineup,” Ervin said of his new slugger.  One of the reasons the team had so much money to spare was an owner that has been very generous once the team began winning.  After the team lost almost 100 games in 2016, the owner dropped the budget from 124 million to 120 million.  But after winning the Championship in 2017 the owner added 16 million to the budget, and when the team won again last year he added another 14 million.  That is a 30 million dollar increase in budget in just two years and has the Tornadoes ranking 3rd in the league with a budget of 150 million.  Collins signed for an resounding 20 million per year over the next three years, with the third year being an unlikely team option.  That makes Collins the 3rd highest paid player in the ABL right now, behind Tom Becker in Washington and Raul Perez in Cabo.  The Tornadoes jump all the way to 4th in payroll now, at just over 102 million.  But it is important to note that the top three payrolls are all over 134 million, so the drop then to 102 million is vast canyon of 32 million dollars.  The Tornadoes may rank 4th in payroll now, but they are only spending 18 million more than the 12th-ranked Washington Federals.  So you can mark this signing down as a likely overpay for Collins, but it still leaves the Tornadoes near the pack in payroll commitment.    It was a big leap off script for the Tornadoes, but the risk was pretty minimal in the grand scheme of things.  And now the front office feels that their first six hitters in the lineup will be able to stand up against every team in the league, with the early projected lineup being:  Oliver North, Chris Collins, Fernando Bautista, Jesus Cruz, Akio Toyoda, and Curt Hall. 

                With Collins now slated as the clear starter in left field for the Tornadoes, this leaves a trio of outfielders from the Championship team a year ago scrambling for the final two reserve spots in the outfield.  Morin, Byford, and Meshizuka all have shown success at the ML level.  All are between 24 and 27 years old and are good enough to start in this league.  And it is not like the ownership of the Tornadoes to push one of them down to the minors to make room for a 38 year old veteran, but that’s exactly what is going to happen.  For the first time in history, the Kansas City Tornadoes are not following their usual path.  And that is one of the reasons that this team might be their most formidable yet.

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