THE FUNNEL REPORT 7/2/12 - Today we examine the argument for Lawrence Fox as a starter in left field for the ABL All-Star game next week.  The ballots are still being counted, but the early returns have not looked very good, with most voters choosing Stephen Jackson of the South Carolina Bombers over Fox.  At the risk of being labeled a "homer", I am going to try and explain why this voter punched the ticket for the Tornadoes left fielder.

Jackson has a statistical advantage batting average (.336 to .303), OBP (.413 to .358), and slugging (.529 to .510).  That's a sweep of first three stats that people tend to look at.  And, not surprisingly, Jackson also ends up with a better OPS number (.942 to .868).  With a clean sweep of these primary statistical indicators, it is easy to see why many voters have selected Jackson.  But while Jackson has an edge in all of these categories, the margin is not entirely dominating.  Despite just 5 homers on the year, Fox is just 19 points behind him in slugging percentage, in part because he has 31 doubles (2nd in he TML) and 12 triples to lead the TML.  The blazing speed that Fox possesses has resulted in extra bases on so many of his hits, and this means a higher probability of starting out at 2nd or 3rd base.  And yet, he has also managed 37 stolen bases, easily the best such total in the entire ABL  Jackson, incidentally, has zero steals.  How many extra runs have come as a result of the way his speed changes the game?  With so many extra base hits, and 37 steals, this has surely resulted in more times that the infield has been pulled in defensively.  You can bet that fewer double plays have resulted after his AB's.  Perhaps more intentional walks.  I suggest it is arguable that the way his speed has impacted games could more than offset the statiscial advantage that Jackson has in BA, OBP, slugging, and OPS...  as none of these numbers account for his steals and several other impacts his speed may have in a game.  When you look at productivity, Jackson has 45 runs and 40 RBI's.  Meanwhile, Fox has just one less RBI (39) despite batting in the leadoff spot, and he has also scored 61 runs on the year...  sixteen more than Jackson.  So maybe the edge in productivity, steals, and speed impacts doesn't quite offset the primary stat advantages of Jackson in the eyes of some voters.  Perhaps they need more.  If we take a look at how they field the position, we will find that they both have committed two errors, but the speed that Fox brings gives him a ZR of +1.5 and an EFF of 1.016...  while Jackson's complete lack of speed gives him a ZR of -6.9 and an EFF of just .939.  The speed of Fox has resulted in him getting to many balls that Jackson will not, and that is also value that won't show up in the primary four stats.  Finally--- when the game is on the line and it is close in the later innings, both players have seen a drop in batting average.  But that drop is much more severe for Jackson, who is batting just .229 in these situations, as opposed to the .257 for Fox.

As I present this case, Fox is currently 3rd place in the left field balloting for the TML.  Jackson leads the way with 10 votes, and Troy Tracy has 2 votes.  With 13 votes in, that leaves just one vote for Fox, and I will confirm now what I suggested earlier...  that vote came from me.  And while my journalistic integrity leaves me uncomfortable with the "homer" label that comes with being the only vote for the home town guy, this is one label that I choose to wear with pride.  And either way, at the seasons mid-point, Fox is well on his way to being the Tornadoes team MVP.