TIMING and the KODAK MOMENT

The inaugural 2012 season for the Kansas City Tornadoes was not fairy tale one.  The Tornadoes lost their first-ever ABL game, and were never again a .500 team.  The team rode a hot streak down the stretch and were only 4 games under .500 when they hosted a 4-game series against their heated rival to close the season---  The Mile High Mustangs.  After taking the first three games of the series, the Tornadoes were looking for the series sweep in the season finale, and a chance to finish with an even record.  The game featured a duel between aces Manuel Ruiz and Antonio Gomez.  Ruiz was given one unearned run of support in the first inning, and made it stick as the Mustangs won the game 1-0.  The season ended 80-82 for the Tornadoes.

                General Manager Tim Ervin walked away from the first-year experience feeling, as many teams do, that pitching was the key to building his franchise.  It was what held the team back in 2012, and he was determined to do something about it.  First, there was a pre-season trade that sent SP Ray Clay and 3B Emilio Guerrero to the defending World Champs, in exchange for a pair of corner infielders and two SP prospects, Martin Merritt and Robert Price.  There was also a trade just a couple of weeks ago with SoCal that sent catcher Freddy Castillo and a 17-year old prospect packing in exchange for two more arms, Chip Sawyer and Ed Miller.  But the GM also wanted prepare for the long term future of the team, with a heavy pitching focus in the draft.  There seemed to be a greater shortage on pitching in the league than on hitting, and the Tornadoes had seen much more success pulling guys out of AAA to hit in the major leagues, than success promoting  guys to get batters out from the mound.  And so the Tornadoes, who had the 9^th pick in every round of the 2013 draft, selected a closer and 5 starting pitchers in the first six rounds of the draft.  The first of these selections came with the 9^th overall pick, when the team grabbed Kazuhiko “KODAK” Kanno.  The Tornadoes did not expect the 19-year old pitcher out of Japan to last the first 8 picks, and had projected him as the 3^rd best SP prospect behind Dale “Melody” Thomas and Louie Latuilippe.  Three other SP’s were taken after the Thomas and Latulippe picks, and none were Kanno, allowing the Tornadoes to get their man.

                When the Tornadoes started the year with Kanno in A-ball, the rookie made it known that he was not very happy.  Did he feel A-ball was beneath him?  Perhaps.  After 7 starts for the San Angelo Mustangs (A), Kanno had a 2.29 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and batters were hitting just .217 against him.  And so he was quickly promoted to the Wichita Wolverines (AA), and promptly struggled in his first two starts.  But he quickly got back into his groove and was pitching great.  The Front Office began to discuss moving him to AAA Joplin to see what he could do with the Fireballs.  But the Tornadoes scouting office kept advising against it, stating very clearly that he would likely be overmatched in AAA.  And so the team heeded the advice of the scouts who were paid to make these calls, and kept the kid in AA.  But eventually, the Front Office could resist the temptation no longer.  After 11 starts for the Wolverines, Kanno had posted a 3.12 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and batters were hitting just .200 against him---  even lower than in A-ball.  And so, on July 6, Kazuhiko “KODAK” Kanno had his AAA debut against the Antioch Coal Miners.  The performance was respectable.  Kanno went the distance in losing a 4-2 decision.  His line:  8 innings, 7 hits, 4 walks, 4 earned runs.  Though he was not overmatched, it was certainly not a spectacular debut.  But the spectacular was still to come.  In his very next start, Kanno would again go the distance.  But this time he would toss a 2-hit shutout and walked zero batters in dominating the Billings Mustangs.  And then, in his 3^rd start in AAA, he would last 8 innings and allow just one earned run for a second straight win.  After six total starts in Joplin, Kanno now has a 3.69 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and batters are hitting just .226 against him.   The kid’s walk/strikeout ratio has been underwhelming for sure in AAA, but he is also yet to allow a home run in 39 innings of work. 

                At every level of the minors, the batting average against him has been stellar.  During a stretch o 7 starts that bridged his promotion to AAA, Kanno went at least 8 innings every single time.  The evidence, at least on the surface, suggests that perhaps his development as a pitcher is more than keeping pace with his fast rate of promotions through the organization.  And this brings us to the question that is knock-knock-knocking on the door of the decision makers in Tornado Tower.  Is it too early or too risky to promote this 19-year old to The Show?  When is it the right time for the much anticipated KODAK moment?

                If the team were struggling or, at least, many games behind down the stretch it wouldn’t even be up for discussion.  There have to be some risks to a youngster by promoting him through the ranks so quickly and placing him in the “Bigs” at just age 19.  But how do you weigh this against the current status of the franchise?  The Tornadoes are currently 62-53, the first time in franchise history they have been this many games over .500.  The team has been within a game of first place for almost the entire season and has led much of the way.  The Tornadoes are currently tied with the Hornets in the Sparky Anderson Division, and just a single game behind the Cardinals in the Wildcard race.  And the Tornadoes seem to have many pieces in place to make a run.  The team has a trio of starters who are pitching brilliantly in Gomez, Cates, and Ramirez, all with ERA’s that have hovered near 3.00 all season  The fastest man on the planet, Lawrence Fox, is still wreaking havoc in the leadoff spot, and he is followed in the batting order by two legitimate MVP candidates---  Jesus Cruz and Armando Rodriguez.  Sluggers Ricardo Marquis and Bob Watkins provide some protection for Cruz, and the team has also had surprising contributions from Stephen Everett & Howard Lawrence with the bat.  Add in the best double-play combo in the ABL and a strong team defense, and there are reasons to believe this team could make the post-season this year.  And once you are there, anything can happen.  But nothing happens if you don’t make it.  And if the bullpen has anything to say about it, the Tornadoes could be in trouble.  This group never saw a fire that didn’t deserve a little gasoline infusion.  Considering the loss of Roosevelt “Great One” Patterson in the first week of the season, it sure could be worse.  But if this team could get a boost in some quality innings down the stretch, they could make the post-season party.  Could it be time for a KODAK moment?

                For now, the kid from Japan is still a member of the Joplin Fireballs.  And the KC Tornadoes have not said when they plan to promote him.  Those close to the situation say that it is not because they won’t tell, but rather because they don’t know.  One thing is for certain.  KODAK has exceeded their first year expectations, and with the team performing as they are right now, this is going to be an interesting decision as the season winds down.

THE FUNNEL REPORT 7/2/12 - Today we examine the argument for Lawrence Fox as a starter in left field for the ABL All-Star game next week.  The ballots are still being counted, but the early returns have not looked very good, with most voters choosing Stephen Jackson of the South Carolina Bombers over Fox.  At the risk of being labeled a "homer", I am going to try and explain why this voter punched the ticket for the Tornadoes left fielder.

Jackson has a statistical advantage batting average (.336 to .303), OBP (.413 to .358), and slugging (.529 to .510).  That's a sweep of first three stats that people tend to look at.  And, not surprisingly, Jackson also ends up with a better OPS number (.942 to .868).  With a clean sweep of these primary statistical indicators, it is easy to see why many voters have selected Jackson.  But while Jackson has an edge in all of these categories, the margin is not entirely dominating.  Despite just 5 homers on the year, Fox is just 19 points behind him in slugging percentage, in part because he has 31 doubles (2nd in he TML) and 12 triples to lead the TML.  The blazing speed that Fox possesses has resulted in extra bases on so many of his hits, and this means a higher probability of starting out at 2nd or 3rd base.  And yet, he has also managed 37 stolen bases, easily the best such total in the entire ABL  Jackson, incidentally, has zero steals.  How many extra runs have come as a result of the way his speed changes the game?  With so many extra base hits, and 37 steals, this has surely resulted in more times that the infield has been pulled in defensively.  You can bet that fewer double plays have resulted after his AB's.  Perhaps more intentional walks.  I suggest it is arguable that the way his speed has impacted games could more than offset the statiscial advantage that Jackson has in BA, OBP, slugging, and OPS...  as none of these numbers account for his steals and several other impacts his speed may have in a game.  When you look at productivity, Jackson has 45 runs and 40 RBI's.  Meanwhile, Fox has just one less RBI (39) despite batting in the leadoff spot, and he has also scored 61 runs on the year...  sixteen more than Jackson.  So maybe the edge in productivity, steals, and speed impacts doesn't quite offset the primary stat advantages of Jackson in the eyes of some voters.  Perhaps they need more.  If we take a look at how they field the position, we will find that they both have committed two errors, but the speed that Fox brings gives him a ZR of +1.5 and an EFF of 1.016...  while Jackson's complete lack of speed gives him a ZR of -6.9 and an EFF of just .939.  The speed of Fox has resulted in him getting to many balls that Jackson will not, and that is also value that won't show up in the primary four stats.  Finally--- when the game is on the line and it is close in the later innings, both players have seen a drop in batting average.  But that drop is much more severe for Jackson, who is batting just .229 in these situations, as opposed to the .257 for Fox.

As I present this case, Fox is currently 3rd place in the left field balloting for the TML.  Jackson leads the way with 10 votes, and Troy Tracy has 2 votes.  With 13 votes in, that leaves just one vote for Fox, and I will confirm now what I suggested earlier...  that vote came from me.  And while my journalistic integrity leaves me uncomfortable with the "homer" label that comes with being the only vote for the home town guy, this is one label that I choose to wear with pride.  And either way, at the seasons mid-point, Fox is well on his way to being the Tornadoes team MVP.

THE FUNNEL REPORT 6/18/12 - The Kansas City Tornadoes have begun to play better ball.  After being 8-games under .500 through April and May, the Tornadoes have posted a 10-6 record in the first half of June.  And sure, the pitching has started to come around in support of the hitting.  But the time has come to recognize one of the quiet heroes of the 2012 Tornadoes---  left fielder Lawrence Fox.  Fox was the 14th round selection for the Tornadoes and came into the season as the projected leadoff hitter.  Scouting reports suggested that Fox had all the speed you would want in a leadoff hitter, but lacked the ability to hit for average and wasn't selective enough at the plate.  For these reasons, the leadoff role didn't appear to be a natural fit for Fox.  But as the season nears its midpoint, it is undeniable that no player in the ABL is wreaking more havoc on the basepaths than Lawrence Fox.  "He causes so much trouble for our opponents," said manager Damian Connor.  "That kind of speed and energy breathes so much energy into our team."  With 33 stolen bases thus far, Fox has nine more thefts than any player in the league.  In addition, his speed and baserunning instincts have resulted in many singles that are stretched into doubles, as well as doubles that are stretched into triples.  Fox is 2nd in the ABL with 26 doubles, and he continues to lead the league in triples with 10, which is almost twice what any other player in the league has.  Combine this with his 4 homers, and Fox has 40 extra base hits already, just one off the league lead.  Additionally, Fox is now batting an even .300 on the season, and is tied for the team lead with 24 walks.  There are several hitters that have made their mark this year for the Tornadoes, but Lawrence Fox has been as valuable as any player on the team and is certainly making early noise as a team MVP candidate.

THE FUNNEL REPORT 5/7/12 - Last week got off to a good start for the Tornadoes, with a 3-game sweep of the So Cal Republic.  And slugger Brian Adams continued his hot-hitting, extending his hitting streak to 21 games in the first 2 games of the series.  But while the hitting streak remains active to this day, Adams suffered a strained rib cage in the series and has landed on the 15-day DL.  His pursuit of the hitting streak will have to continue when he returns in 2-3 weeks. But Adams' misfortune was just the beginning of the injury bug for the team last week.  After sweeping the Republic in three games, the Tornadoes went to Mile High for a four game series that saw injuries pile up one after another.  The most serious of these injuries befell second baseman Armando Rodriguez.  The Tornadoes first round draft pick tore his ACL running the bases on Friday and is out for the remainder of the season.  Ricardo Marquis, the team leader in home runs, suffered a bruise to his right foot running the bases and is listed as day-to-day.  No word yet from the team on how cautious they will be with Marquis' timetable for return.  It was so bad for the Tornadoes in this series, that they were dropping like flies even before the game.  Starting pitcher Fabrizio Palgani was struck in the head by a wild pitch during batting practice, although it is believed he won't miss a start.  And then, adding insult to injury, the team reports that the ace of the rotation, Antonio Gomez, was diagnosed with a serious sinus infection on the plane ride out of the Mile High city.  He is expected to miss his next start. And so, a week that began with an exciting three game sweep, ended with a team that was decimated with injuries in losing 3 of 4 to their division rival.  There is no word from management yet as to who is going to be promoted from Joplin to replace Adams and Rodriguez on the active roster.

THE FUNNEL REPORT 4/30/12 - With all of the negative press that the Tornadoes pitching staff has garnered, there have been some offensive heroes that have been lost in the fog.  Perhaps the best example is Brian Adams, who has very quietly put together a 19-game hitting streak heading into the final day of April.  Manager Damian Conor was so impressed that he moved Adams up in the lineup this past week.  Adams responded with 10 hits in six games, batting .370 in the third spot in the order.  "He's really in a zone right now," said veteran slugger, Ricardo Marquis.  "He's putting a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers, and that just makes our job easier."  It's not surprising at all that Marquis is a big fan, as he is also coming off a solid week of his own since swapping positions with Adams in the order.  Marquis has 11 hits in his past 6 games, including a 5-hit performance just yesterday against the Mountain Cats.  "I'm just seeing the ball very well right now," said Adams of his hitting streak.  But then, Adams has always been a true free-swinger and rarely sees a pitch he doesn't like.  He is on a pace that would have him walk just 34 times and strike out just 47 times in 668 at bats.  With stats like that, some players have been called a "hacker".  But hitting coach Amaro Vagos dismisses this label.  "It's ok to be a hacker when you're batting over .350."  Well said, coach.  With a 19-game hitting streak in his hip pocket, the pressure on Adams will certainly turn up a notch this week, as the Tornadoes continue on their 13-game road trip with stops in So Cal and Mile High.

THE FUNNEL REPORT 4/23/12 - The struggles for the Tornadoes continued in the third week of the season, as they were swept by the division leading Jokers, and then lost 2 of 3 to the Seattle Sasquatch.  The Tornadoes are now just 5-13 on the year and the big wart on the team face has been the pitching staff, particularly the starting rotation.  After 18 games, the Tornadoes feature a league-worst ERA of 6.64, with the rotation posting a ridiculous 7.60 ERA.  The reputations of the Manager and Pitching Coach are both among the league's best, but they haven't been able to stop the slide at this point.  "There's no denying that our pitching staff is putting the team in a terrible hole right now," said manager Damian Connor.  "But there really isn't a magic bullet.  We just have to continue to try to lead these guys out of the slump and ultimately someone in the rotation has got to step up and give us a big game that can pump some confidence into the staff."  No one in the organization believes this team will end the season with an ERA over seven.  Nevertheless, the longer the pitching staff serves up runs on a silver platter, the more it will come to define this team.  The larger the sample, the more your stats represent who you are.  The clock is officially ticking, and judgement day is coming early for the 2012 Tornadoes.

THE FUNNEL REPORT 4/16/12 - The launch of the Kansas City Tornadoes franchise did not get off to the best start, as the team from the midwest started 1-8 in their first 8 games.  But just when you thought the Tornadoes might fold early, the team rebounded with a 3-game sweep of the Jacksonville Jacks and take a 4-8 record in the season's third week.  But while this sweep has brought optimism to the clubhouse, it's hard to look past the dismal 6.33 ERA the team has posted thus far.  Clearly, the Tornadoes are going to have to turn this around quickly if they want to stay in the race for the Sparky Anderson Division.  Management must be thinking the same thing, as they have demoted a couple of young, struggling hurlers---  Paul Carter and Jim Davis.  Replacing them on the active roster are Ray Clay and Antonio Gonzalez, as the Tornadoes prepare for a 3-game set in Las Vegas against the division leaders this week.